SMC Global Securities Limited

In short: 1. Trump’s tariffs are shaking global trade 2. India’s timely mini deal is a big relief for exporters 3. Consumers worldwide could soon face higher prices 4. Global growth may slow if this continues If you found this breakdown useful, 🔁Retweet the first tweet to

How is India faring? Trump threatened India with 26-27% tariffs on its exports starting July 9, later extended to August 1. So, India & the US have raced to secure a “goods-only” mini deal

JP Morgan Research warns: A 10% base tariff + high China tariffs could cut 1% off global GDP Even if China tariffs are reduced to 60%, the world loses 0.7% GDP

India’s Growth Push from this Deal A broad trade deal with the US could double Indian exports to the US over the next decade and lift India’s GDP by 0.6% India sends 19.3% of its goods exports to the US — its largest export destination Including services, total exports could

What’s in the India-US mini deal? 🇮🇳India agrees: To lower tariffs on select US industrial & agri goods (almonds, natural gas, defence) To import more US natural gas But keeps protecting wheat, dairy, rice to safeguard farmers

What does it mean for the world? Tariffs this high will likely: ⚠️Increase prices for US consumers ⚠️Slow down global economic growth Already, the World Bank has cut 2025’s growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.3% OECD cut from 3.3% to 2.9%

But why these countries? Trump says these Asian nations have “unfair trade deficits” In simple terms, they sell way more to the US than they buy from it But many experts believe this is really about pressuring China indirectly by hitting its supply chain allies

What about countries who’ve managed a deal? ✅UK: Signed a deal with a 10% tariff on most goods, zero on steel and aluminium ✅Vietnam: Signed a deal at 20% tariffs on most exports 🇨🇳China: From 145% down to 30% in a truce, while US exports to China face just 10% tariffs now

🇺🇸US gains: Moves to cut its $41.2B trade deficit with India For India, this deal: Saves it from a crippling 26% tariff on $78B exports (pharma, textiles, auto parts) Supports its Mission-500 to grow bilateral trade to $500B by 2030